It’s finally deep enough into the NFL season that we can enjoy a vast amount of data to make informed betting picks on our player props.
We were projecting playing time and role prior to the last few weeks, but at this point everyone should be at the same level.
It hasn’t gone great up till this point, going 10-13 on props on the season, while losing 2.7 units on the season.
It’ll turn soon enough, hopefully beginning this weekend with our four Week 8 player props and picks.
Week 8 NFL player props
Tua Tagovailoa Over 30.5 pass attempts (-120, BetMGM)
Guess who is back!
The return of Tua Tagovailoa is a major boon for anyone investing in Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.
The Dolphins’ offense should look much improved this week against a bad Cardinals defense.
Betting on the NFL?
Tagovailoa has gone Over 30.5 pass attempts in 11 of 17 regular-season games last season and was well on his way to going over before being injured in Week 2 against the Bills.
He went Over this projection in Week 1 against the Jaguars and has a 65 percent hit rate since the beginning of last season.
Even off an injury, I’m backing Tagovailoa to show off his skills for Miami.
CJ Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards (-110) | 25+ (+380, ESPN BET)
CJ Stroud is Over the small side of this number in three of his last four games and could have a chance to continue to jump this in future games.
Earlier in the year, we hit Brock Purdy’s rushing yards when his weapons were out with injuries.
The same could happen with Nico Collins out, as Tank Dell put up a goose egg in what was supposed to be an expanded role last week against the Packers.
Regardless, the small side of this line should be easy and there’s great value on 25+, a line he’s hit once in his last three games.
Cedric Tillman Over 39.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) | 100+ (12/1, Bet365)
Jameis Winston is now at quarterback for the Browns and one thing is for sure: someone will be a major beneficiary.
It could be starter Jerry Jeudy, but for my pick, we’re going to rising receiver Cedric Tillman, who played excellent last week while grabbing passes from Winston.
Tillman got three targets (two catches) of Winston’s 11 throws in mop-up duty behind Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
Tillman looked ultra efficient and is an excellent deep ball threat for Winston, who loves to air it out.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
