While the whereabouts of six inmates who ran from a New Orleans jail by climbing through a hole behind a toilet remain unknown, experts say there is a strong likelihood the escapees will get caught ‒ eventually.
As law enforcement officials hunt for the escapees, the odds of their recapture are “very high,” Bryce Peterson, an adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice who has conducted extensive research on inmate escapes, told USA TODAY.
“Well over 90% of inmates who escape will be recaptured,” Peterson, also a senior research scientist at the CNA Center for Justice Research and Innovation, said on May 19. “And with some of New Orleans inmates facing long sentences, the national media attention and federal, state and local authorities all working together, I’d put that figure much closer to 100%.”
Originally, 10 inmates, ranging in age from 19 to 42, escaped from Orleans Parish Prison early on May 16. The inmates pulled a “defective” cell door off its tracks and escaped through a hole in the wall behind a toilet and sink unit, authorities said. The inmates faced charges ranging from aggravated assault to murder.
Four inmates were captured, and six remain at large.
Escapees on the run likely have a ‘network of resources’
Exactly how long the fugitives can avoid capture depends on how much planning they put into their escape, Anthony Cangelosi, an adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and a former U.S. Marshal and Secret Service agent, told USA TODAY.
And with the FBI believing that others from the outside are helping the seven inmates, law enforcement has its hands full, Cangelosi said.
“They likely have a network of resources that the other three didn’t have, or those caught were sloppier with their planning,” Cangelosi said. “There’s a myriad of factors coming into play.”
On the run: Manhunt for 7 inmates who escaped New Orleans jail reaches 4th day
Also, if the fugitives had enough preparation to escape, they are “highly motivated not to get caught,” said Cangelosi on May 19.
“Especially if they had a significant amount of time to think about this, between deciding when they were going to do it, where they were going, and who was going to help them. The last thing on their mind is getting caught,” Cangelosi said.
“You don’t have much money on you, no real change of clothes, and you have to blend in to stay on the run for a certain amount of time,” Cangelosi added. “And, you’re going to need shelter, and you’re going to need food. I have no doubt some of them are being harbored and assisted by someone they know.”
Authorities are likely scouring through the escapees’ visitor and phone records, and if they had access to email for clues, Cangelosi and Peterson added.
And now that it’s been a few days on the lam, the experts said the authorities’ search has expanded to checking known locations of family members and close associates.
“Any footprints they can trace that can lead to a trail to capture them,” Cangelosi said.
Inmate escapes are rare
Research on inmate escapes is “very scarce,” Peterson said. However, a 2016 study he analyzed showed more than 600 inmate escapes in 2009 and discovered that more than 92%, a vast majority of escapees, were captured. And the research shows that most escapees fled low-security facilities were opportunity-driven.
Peterson said that while inmate escapes are uncommon in general, they also usually happen in locally run facilities. In most cases, offenders may simply walk away, or don’t return if they’re out on a work release.
“That happens much more frequently than inmates breaking out of a facility, overcoming a barrier, or overcoming a guard,” Peterson said.
Yet, it is hard to estimate the number of inmate breaks across the U.S. because there is no comprehensive national data on them, Peterson added.
See how New Orleans inmates escaped jail
More: Who are the inmates still on the run from a New Orleans jail?
Violence by escapees is uncommon
In his research, Peterson said about 19% of escapes result in some form of violence. Most of the violence is minor, such as pushing or shoving a correctional officer while fleeing. Yet, the violence is much less common once the escapee is out in the community, Peterson said.
“They don’t want to draw attention to themselves, they are more focused on finding two things, such as food and shelter. Third, they are typically captured so quickly, there’s not a lot of opportunity to commit a violent act,” Peterson said.
But in the case of the inmates who escaped in New Orleans, the longer they are out of custody, the more likely they will turn to violence, Peterson said.
“The more desperate they become to remain free, and the more the interaction they have in the community creates more opportunities for them to resort to violence,” Peterson said. “The sooner they are captured, the better.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New Orleans jail escape: Experts predict all fugitives will be caught
