Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election decisively, becoming the first Republican candidate to win the popular vote in 20 years. Foreign policy wasn’t the focal point of the election, but the two candidates presented sharply contrasting ideas. Harris ran on continuing outgoing president Joe Biden’s foreign policy to build and strengthen alliances and international partnerships. Conversely, Trump proffered a transactional, America-first vision, much like his first term. The voters ultimately backed Trump for economic reasons, but he also edged out Harris on foreign policy. Trump faces many foreign policy challenges, but the most acute will be handling Xi Jinping and China. From the trade war to threats to Taiwan, this article will examine what a second Trump term could mean for Beijing and Xi Jinping’s regime.
Why This Matters
Of all the foreign policy challenges that await the incoming administration, none will be more important than China. Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China’s exports to the United States have skyrocketed from $100 billion to over $400 billion annually. China is the third-largest importer of American goods, behind only Canada and Mexico. The ongoing trade dispute will have serious implications for global commerce.
Trump and Xi
Personal relationships matter a great deal to the president-elect. Trump and Xi’s relationship had a promising beginning. In 2017, Donald Trump was the first foreign leader to dine in the Forbidden City during what was called a “state visit-plus.” However, relations soured over Trump’s rhetoric during the COVID outbreak and a tit-for-tat trade war. In 2018, Trump imposed hefty tariffs on over 10,000 Chinese products worth $200 billion. Despite the tensions, Trump maintained he enjoyed a good relationship with Xi. In 2020, Trump insisted he and Xi “love each other” and that Sino-US relations had never been better. He often described the Chinese premier as “brilliant” on the 2024 campaign trail. Xi has been more taciturn in his perception of Trump. He is not expected to accept Trump’s unprecedented invitation to attend his inauguration.
Ahead of a second Trump term, Xi sent congratulations and expressed hope for future cooperation:
It is hoped that the two sides will, in the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, enhance dialogue and communication, properly manage differences, expand mutually beneficial cooperation, and find the right way for China and the United States to get along with each other in the new era to the benefit of the two countries and the world.
Intellectual Property Rights and Espionage
Of course, critics will note that China’s actions don’t match those lofty sentiments. Beijing’s flagrant intellectual property abuses are heavily criticized and a major source of contention between China and the United States. China also frequently engages in espionage against the United States. The Center for Strategic and International Studies published a survey of 224 instances of espionage against the United States since 2000. One major incident was the 2016 indictment of Su Bin, a Chinese national, on a conspiracy to steal sensitive documents pertaining to the F-35 fighter jet. The Chinese J-35 bears a striking resemblance to the premier American plane. In December 2024, state-sponsored Chinese hackers breached the US Treasury in a “major cybersecurity incident.”
China Hawks
Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, Florida senator Marco Rubio, indicates that his administration may take a tougher line on China. Rubio is an outspoken critic of China. In September 2024, the senator released Made in China: 2025, a report on Beijing’s industrial policy.
This report should serve as a wakeup call to lawmakers, CEOs, and investors. We need a whole-of-society effort to rebuild our country, overcome the China challenge, and keep the torch of freedom lit for generations to come.
Trump’s pick for Secretary of State may have limited options in engaging with China, as he’s still technically under a 2020 Beijing sanction. Rubio isn’t the only China hawk tapped to serve in the next Trump administration. The president-elect’s picks for Secretary of Defense and national security advisor have also spoken out against China. On the other hand, Elon Musk’s influence over the president-elect could steer him towards a more conciliatory path.
In December 2024, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, spoke of the importance of not getting drawn into a “new Cold War”:
A new Cold War should not be fought and cannot be won. Containing China is unwise and bound to fail. Which should one choose, to be friends with 1.4 billion people, or to turn against each other? The answer is self-evident.
BRICS
BRICS is an informal group of non-aligned nations named after its founding members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The organization seeks to challenge Western economic dominance, and after its 2024 expansion, member states comprise half the world’s population. One of the group’s main goals is to reduce dependency on the dollar and potentially create a new unified currency to edge out the dollar entirely. The prospect of a new BRICS reserve currency supplanting the dollar is still remote, given China and India’s border dispute and the dollar’s existing dominance in global trade. China and Russia favor further expansion, while Brazil and India are more reluctant.
Trump reacted angrily to the idea of shifting away from the dollar by threatening to impose a 100% tariff on any BRICS nations that dump the dollar. Whether this is typical Trumpian bluster or the opening salvo in an extended trade war remains to be seen.
Taiwan
The United States has long maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding the China-Taiwan conflict, but that approach may soon be severely tested. In 1979, The United States formally recognized the People’s Republic of China as the “real” China at the expense of the Republic of China (Taiwan). However, the United States didn’t wholly abandon Taiwan and maintained unofficial ties with Taipei. Under the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States pledges to:
make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capacity
The Biden administration began sending direct military aid to Taiwan, and the outgoing president authorized a $571 million package in December 2024. The sense of urgency behind the move comes from fear that Beijing may soon be ready to press its claim on Taiwan by force. According to a May 2024 Congressional report, Chinese premier Xi Jinping instructed the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to invade by 2027. This, of course, does not mean an invasion is a certainty. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be immensely difficult and present a huge risk. On the other hand, China’s impending demographic implosion means there is a rather narrow window of opportunity for success.
The Takeaway
Relations between China and the United States stand at a crossroads. On the one hand, the two leaders have found some accord that could lead to productive dialogue. On the other, Trump’s anti-Chinese rhetoric and a bitter trade war have soured relations. Trump’s inner circle is similarly contradictory. Elon Musk’s extensive commercial ties with China and significant influence over Trump could pave the way toward a moderate path. However, several of his cabinet picks are strident China hawks.
China’s growing global influence through BRICS could draw Trump’s ire if the organization follows through with its aim to ditch the dollar. The final and thorniest issue of all is the Taiwan question. For decades, the United States skated by on strategic ambiguity. However, a more forceful posture on Taiwan’s future could soon be needed. Xi’s personal ambitions across the Taiwan Strait are no secret. An armed confrontation between China and Taiwan could have disastrous implications for the United States.
The next administration will face many challenges, none as formidable or important as handling Beijing.
