The most expensive court race in U.S. history, wrapping up this week, will determine if the Wisconsin state Supreme Court leans left or right. It could also signal how voters are feeling 70 days into President Donald Trump’s second term.
In anticipation of Tuesday’s outcome, a handful of polls show voters in the midwestern belwether are split almost evenly between Democratic-pick Susan Crawford and Trump-backed candidate Brad Schimel.
A recent poll by SoCal Strategies put Crawford a few points ahead, 50% to 42%.
In their findings, the nonpartisan group said part of this boost comes from the Democratic base being “significantly more likely” than Republican-aligned voters to turn out to the polls in an odd-year, non-November election.
Given the timing, data about Wisconsin’s contentious judicial race is less plentiful than what might be on hand, say, during a presidential or midterm election.
Of the surveys published, none shows either candidate running away with the race.
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Who is running in Wisconsin?
Schimel, a Waukesha County judge, entered the Supreme Court race after losing his 2018 bid for reelection as the state’s attorney general.
Crawford is a circuit court judge in Dane County, which includes the city of Madison. She previously worked as a private attorney.
Crawford vs. Schimel as the race heats up
Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce, a typically conservative-aligned organization, released a survey in early March showing Crawford and Schimel tied at 47% apiece.
The business association has contributed more than $4 million to Schimel’s campaign, according to the Brennan Center for Justice.
Polling by another right-leaning group and news site, TIPP Insights, also found the candidates tied, 38% to 38%.
Twenty percent of voters surveyed in the February poll said they were unsure who they would choose.
A man fills his ballot at an early voting station for April 1 elections which include a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, in Green Bay, Wisconsin, U.S. March 19, 2025. REUTERS/Eric Cox
Marquette Law School Poll in early March reported a sizeable portion of voters who were not informed enough to give an opinion on the candidates. Of those interviewed, 38% said they had not heard or did not know enough about Schimel; 58% said the same about Crawford.
As the finish line in Wisconsin draws nearer, though, attention on the race has ramped up.
In SoCal Strategies’ survey of 500 Wisconsinites a week from Election Day, 8% of likely voters said they were still unsure.
A test for the Trump administration
The race in Wisconsin is seen by many as a potential referendum on the president and his popularity thus far.
The Badger State reflects many of the nation’s demographics, including that its median age is around 40 years. The state’s median income and percentage of college graduates is also on par with most of the country, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Wisconsin’s population is whiter than the U.S. population as a whole. The state’s residents were 79% white in 2023, according to Data USA. The U.S. in 2023 was 58% white.
One of seven closely watched swing states in 2024, Wisconsin went for Trump by less than a point, a margin of about 29,000 votes, last November.
Marquette’s survey, published March 5, found 51% of voters disapproved of his performance so far, compared to 48% who approved.
Opinion differed sharply by partisanship, though: 92% of Republican voters said they approved of the president and 97% of Democrats disapproved. Among independents, 60% disapproved and 39% approved.
TOPSHOT – Elon Musk wears a Cheesehead hat as he speaks during a town hall in Green Bay, Wisconsin on March 30, 2025. An election to choose a new supreme court judge in the northern US state of Wisconsin wouldn’t usually make much noise. But when the world’s richest man took an interest in the race, people began to notice, and protests on March 30 drew crowds. Tech baron and political provocateur Elon Musk, a close ally of President Donald Trump, has poured money into the Tuesday election, hoping to secure a conservative win. (Photo by Robin LEGRAND / AFP) (Photo by ROBIN LEGRAND/AFP via Getty Images)
But Trump is not the only big player from out of state looming over the race. His billionaire adviser, Elon Musk, has poured about $20 million into supporting Schimel, and over the weekend, he appeared at an event in Green Bay, hoping to stir up votes for the conservative candidate.
The tech entrepreneur faces slightly less favorable reception in the state compared with Trump. In Marquette’s poll, 41% viewed Musk positively, while 53% said they held a negative opinion of the president’s right-hand man. Like Trump, Musk’s favorability falls along partisan lines: 81% of Republicans like him, and 97% of Democrats do not.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What polls say about Wisconsin Supreme Court race before Election Day
