CLEVELAND — If you want to believe that Carlos Rodon is going to throw a gem in a big spot for the Yankees, there is statistical support.
If you want to believe that Rodon is going to get hit around Saturday by the Guardians, there is statistical support for that argument, too.
So, which Rodon will show up for Game 5 of the ALCS?
The one with the deep track record of pitching well at Progressive Field?
Or the one who was ineffective on the road this season?
Manager Aaron Boone is expecting an ace-like performance similar to what Rodon showed at home in Game 1.
“I feel great about where he’s at and what he’s going to bring,” Boone said before the Yankees’ thrilling 8-6 win over the Guardians in Game 4 on Friday night.
Mostly as a member of the rival White Sox, Rodon has pitched to a 3.08 ERA in 76 innings over 13 career games in Cleveland.
One key to his success against the Guardians — no matter the site — has been holding Jose Ramirez to a .217 average with five extra-base hits (zero home runs) and five RBIs in 46 at-bats.
“It’s just one of those things where sometimes as players, you show up to certain places and you pitch well,” Rodon said. “I’m sure we could find somewhere out of the 30 ballparks that I don’t pitch well in. And fortunately, I do pitch well in this one because [Saturday] is going to be a pretty big game.”
Rodon did not pitch at Progressive Field during the regular season. If he did, maybe his home-road splits wouldn’t be as drastic as a 3.11 ERA at Yankee Stadium and a 4.69 ERA away from his home ballpark.
Follow The Post’s coverage of the Yankees in the postseason:
He had similar amounts of home runs allowed, walks and strikeouts but just surrendered a lot more hits on the road.
“I haven’t paid much mind to it,” Rodon said. “I don’t know. I can’t tell you why.”
Rodon believes ‘What have you done for me lately?’ is the most important factor. And he allowed just a solo home run while striking out nine and walking none to open the ALCS.
“I was mindful of where I was emotionally,” Rodon said. “And then, I think focus-wise … I’m always very focused on the task at hand when I’m on the mound, but I kept it pretty simple. I thought that I stayed within and just controlled what was in front of me. And everything behind me and things that I couldn’t control, I just kind of brushed it off.”
The Yankees have a handful of young players making their playoff debuts in 2024, but Boone thinks a 31-year-old left-hander with prior postseason experience might be the one who has benefited from getting his jitters out.
Rodon lost command in the fourth inning of his ALDS start.
“Obviously, he’s pitched in the league now for a long time, has had a lot of success, has been through a lot with us — struggling last year, bouncing back in the way he did this year,” Boone said. “I think as much as anyone, it feels to me like he’s really gained a lot from the experience of pitching in the postseason with the Yankees.”
