Recent polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump, in the race for president, according to USA TODAY.
As time winds down until the general election, less than six weeks away, the burning question remains: Who will become the next president of the United States? Harris was shown to have a small lead over Trump in the key battleground state of Michigan, per an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, and intends to keep her momentum by sticking to the campaign trails ahead of the election.
Ohio Sen. JD Vance will take the stage opposite Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to participate in the upcoming vice-presidential debate on Tuesday. Both VP candidates will gear up to appear in the debate hosted by on CBS News on Oct. 1.
This comes after a whirlwind of events in Springfield, Ohio, since the city became the center of the immigration debate—and by extension debunked claims surrounding Haitian immigrants—following the Sept. 10 presidential debate.
From Ohio’s cookie poll predictors to Vance doubling down on spreading rumors, the state has experienced quite the political shakeup in recent weeks. Here’s what the polls show about the presidential candidates.
Who is leading in the polls and favored in the odds?
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.3% to Trump’s 45.6%, compared to Harris 48.3% to Trump 45.3% last week, compared to Harris 47.1% to Trump 44.4% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% to Trump at 43.9% three weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% to Trump at 43.7% four weeks ago.
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 3% over trump, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump last week, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to three weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump four weeks ago.
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RealClearPolling shows the betting odds are in Harris’ favor with a spread of +2.3 over Trump compared to +2.0 over Trump last week, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump three weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump four weeks ago.
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Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Harris over Trump by 3% compared to Harris over Trump by 2% last week, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% two weeks ago or compared to Trump over Harris by 4% three weeks ago or compared to Harris leading by 1% point over Trump four weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024 at 7 a.m.
What did Allan Lichtman predict for the presidential election of 2024?
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and lives in Bethesda, Maryland.
The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. He claims to use a set of 13 “keys” to make his picks, which range from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to The Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging, as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Will JD Vance be VP? What the Harris-Trump presidential polls show
