Election Day is just 20 days away and as the presidential race enter its final stages attention is narrowing on swing-state Pennsylvania.
The Republican and Democratic parties are both investing a lot of time, money and attention on the state of Pennsylvania, where the race is so close that it can really go either way. The state voted President Joe Biden in the 2020 election after it carried Trump in the 2016 election.
While most states consistently vote red or blue, such as the 38 states that voted for the same party over and over between 2000 and 2016, there are those that waiver and sway in every election. These are called swing states or the battleground states.
Once again, Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes, is one of the battleground states now likely to determine the 2024 election. The others include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
The political climate over the last couple of months has made history and headlines across the country and is likely to impact undecided voters or have others reconsidering their votes:
So, who will be the 47th president of the United States?
Here’s how Pennsylvania polls and odds match up against the national polls and odds as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds?
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls by +2.6, with Harris at 48.6% to Trump’s 45.9% versus the very close Pennsylvania poll that has Harris up by +0.8, with Harris at 48.1% and Trump at 47.3%
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.5% over Trump while in the Pennsylvania poll, Trump has a narrow lead over Harris by 0.1%
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realclearpolling shows the national betting odds are in Harris’s favor with a spread of +1.7 over Trump, however, Pennsylvania’s odds are favoring Trump with a +0.3 spread over Harris.
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Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing growing odds by the betting public, favoring Trump 59.5% over Harris 40.3% on the national odds, while Trump leads with 59% odds over Harris’s 42% odds in Pennsylvania.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024, at noon.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins of error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Who’s winning presidential election? What polls say vs. Pennsylvania
