With just 10 days to go before the 2024 presidential election polling suggests the contest is too close to call, with some models pointing towards victory for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris whilst others suggest Donald Trump will secure a second term in the White House.
The latest analysis of recent polls by election website FiveThirtyEight, published on Friday, gives Harris a 1.4-point lead over Trump in the popular vote with 48 percent of the vote against 46.6 percent. However, overall FiveThirtyEight has Trump as the favorite with a 53 percent chance of victory. Due to the Electoral College system, a candidate can win the popular vote but lose overall, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
Alternatively, the most recent study of surveys over the past few weeks by data aggregation website RealClearPolling, also released on Friday, gives Trump a 48.3 percent share of the vote against 47.7 percent for Harris. Notible at the same stage of the 2016 and 2020 election cycles RealClearPolling had Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden up by 5.2 percent and 4.8 percent respectively.
In better news for Harris an analysis published on October 22 by 338Canada, based on “opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data,” had the current vice president as favorite. Its model predicted the Democratic nominee would pick up an average of 286 Electoral College votes against 252 for Trump.
Newsweek
Speaking to Newsweek, political scientist Thomas Gift, who heads the Centre on U.S. politics at University College London, said: “The margin between Harris and Trump is truly razor thin, and both national polls and polls in key swing states show both candidates clearly within the margin of error. Each campaign is vying for a small and disappearing swing vote.
“To appeal to moderates, Harris needs to release her grip on the point that democracy is at stake. Voters who subscribe to this notion are already voting for her. But it’s not courting many swing voters. Democracy is an abstract and distant concern to many Americans, who are more worried about kitchen-table issues like the economy, health care, or housing.
“Trump also needs to keep the focus on policy. So many of his stump speeches now feel like a stream of consciousness. They’re ad hominem and veer off track. That appeals to the MAGA base, not moderate constituencies. If there are two issues where Trump has an advantage, it’s on cost of living and immigration. He needs to focus on those issues relentlessly in the final stretch.”
Between October 22 and 24, 1,357 likely voters across the United States were surveyed by TIPP Insights, with the pull giving Harris a 2-point lead with 49 percent of the vote against Trump’s 47 percent. This survey had a 2.7-point margin of error.
Activote surveyed 1,000 likely voters between October 19 and 24, finding Harris and Trump were tied with 50 percent of the vote each. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
A Siena College/New York Times poll of 2,516 likely voters, which took place between October 20 and 23, gave Trump a 1-point lead when third-party candidates Jill Stein and Chase Oliver were included, with 47 percent of the vote against 46 percent for Harris and two percent for Stein. When the third-party candidates were removed the poll found Trump and Harris level at 48 percent each. The margin of error was 2.2 percentage points.
| Pollster | TIPP Insights | Activote | Siena College/New York Times |
| Lead | Two points to Harris | Tied | 1 point to Trump with third-party candidates, tied without. |
| Sample | 1,357 likely voters | 1,000 likely voters | 2,516 likely voters |
| Date | October 22-24 | October 19-22 | October 20-23 |
Newsweek contacted the Kamala Harris and Donald Trump presidential election campaigns for comment via email on Friday outside of regular office hours.
The 2024 presidential election is likely to be decided in a number of key battleground states, regardless of the overall vote share, with particular importance being attached to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, a poll of 860 likely voters conducted by Emerson College for RealClearPennsylvania gave Trump a two-point lead, with 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent. The poll had a 3.3-point margin of error.
Redfield & Wilton Strategist surveyed 1,586 likely voters for British newspaper the Daily Telegraph, putting Harris 1 point ahead with 48 percent of the vote to Trump’s 47 percent.
Over October 16-20 Morning Consult surveyed 812 likely Pennsylvania voters for Bloomberg, giving Harris a two-point lead with 50 percent of the vote to 48 percent for Trump. The survey had a three-point margin of error.
Wisconsin
An Emerson College survey of 800 likely voters in Wisconsin for RealClearWorld gave Trump a 1-point lead with 50 percent of the vote against 49 percent for Harris. The survey was conducted over October 21-22 and had a 3.4-point margin of error.
Between October 20 and 22 Redfield & Wilton Strategies surveyed 557 likely voters in the state for the Daily Telegraph, giving Harris a 2-point lead with 49 percent of the vote against 47 percent.
Michigan
Over October 17-21, 1,316 likely voters in Michigan were polled by Quinnipiac University, with the survey putting Harris on 50 percent of the vote compared with 46 percent for Trump with an overall lead of four points. The survey had a 2.9-point margin of error.
Morning Consult polled 705 likely Michigan voters over October 16 to 20 for Bloomberg. The poll gave Harris a 4-point lead in a head-to-head with Trump, on 50 percent of the vote against the Republican candidate’s 46 percent. The survey came with a 4-point margin of error.
North Carolina
Trump leads Harris by 2 points, with 50 percent of the vote against her 48 percent, according to an Emerson College poll of 950 likely voters in North Carolina carried out for RealClearWorld. The survey was conducted over October 20-22 and came with a 3.1-point margin of error.
The former president also had a two-point lead according to a Marist College poll of 1,226 likely voters conducted over October 17-22. This survey gave Trump 50 percent of the vote against 48 percent for Harris. The margin of error was 3.6 points.
Georgia
In Georgia, a Marist College survey of 1,193 likely voters had Harris and Trump tied with 49 percent of the vote each. It took place between October 17 and 22 and had a 3.9-point margin of error.
Morning Consult polled 855 likely Georgia voters for Bloomberg over October 16-20. In a straight contest, it gave Trump a 2-point lead with 50 percent of the vote against 48 percent for Harris, with a 3-point margin of error.
Arizona
In Arizona, a Marist College poll of 1,193 likely voters conducted over October 17-22 put Trump ahead with 50 percent of the vote against 49 percent for Harris. The survey had a 3.7-point margin of error.
Separately an Insider Advantage poll of 800 likely voters gave Trump a 3-point lead, with 50 percent of the vote against 47 percent for Harris. The survey was conducted over October 19-20 with a 3-point margin of error.
Nevada
Insider Advantage also surveyed 800 likely voters in Nevada over October 19-20. The poll found Harris and Trump tied with 48 percent each and had a 3.52-point margin of error.
A Morning Consult poll for Bloomberg also found Harris and Trump were both on 48 percent in a straight fight, though without third-party candidates, the Democrat had a 1-point lead with 49 percent against 48 percent. The survey of 420 likely voters had a 5-point margin of error.
As of October 23, nearly 20,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats had voted thus far in Nevada, a situation one local political expert described as “unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle.”
Update 10/26/24, 5:50 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with comment from Thomas Gift, the director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London.
