In the last 60 years, no political party has held the New Jersey governor’s office for more than two consecutive terms.
As thousands of New Jersey residents head to the polls on Tuesday to cast their ballots, the question on everyone’s mind is whether the 2025 gubernatorial election will follow that pattern or not. Polls opened at 6 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. across the state.
The race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli to succeed Democrat Phil Murphy remains very close, with polls in the final days of the campaign indicating Sherrill leading Ciattarelli but not by much. The AtlasIntel poll, which accurately predicted the outcomes of the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections, had her leading by less than 1 percentage point.
Nearly 1 million voters cast their ballots during early voting in New Jersey, according to Political Polls, which tracks polling data and voting across multiple sources. As of Sunday afternoon, 614,757 Democrats had cast early ballots and 347,891 Republicans had voted early.
All eyes were on voter turnout on Tuesday, with get-out-the-vote efforts in high gear across the state by both parties.
Turning Point Action, part of Turning Point USA, held “Super Chase” voter rallies for Ciattarelli at several sites over the weekend, including Ocean County College in Toms River, and President Donald Trump has repeatedly posted on his Truth Social site urging Republicans to get to the polls for Ciattarelli. On Monday he specifically urged voters in Lakewood’s Orthodox Jewish community to choose Ciattarelli, and on Tuesday made several posts attacking Sherrill and calling votes for Democrats “a death wish.”
On Saturday, former president Barack Obama made a visit to New Jersey to support Sherrill’s campaign for governor as he attended a “get out the vote” rally in Newark. He endorsed Sherrill earlier this summer, and Sherrill made a number of appearances around the state to connect with voters.
The two campaigns have spent more than $83 million on the general election trying to convince voters to choose them, and spending by independent expenditure committees has pushed the total to more than $228 million, according to the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission. It’s the highest spending for any gubernatorial election in New Jersey history, NJ ELEC said.
Polling has shown very little space between Ciattarelli and Sherrill on how voters view them on key issues, including the affordability of New Jersey and taxes, with Ciattarelli leading by 1 percentage point in those categories, according to AtlasIntel.
New Jersey has long been fickle when it comes to the political affiliation of its governors, with no political party winning more than two consecutive terms since 1962, when Democrat Richard J. Hughes was elected to serve after Democrat Robert B. Meyner had served two terms, from 1954 to 1962. Meyner had won election when Republican Alfred E. Driscoll finished his second term.
Hughes was succeeded by Republican William T. Cahill (one term), and Cahill was followed by Democrat Brendan T. Byrne, who served two terms. Republican Thomas H. Kean served the next two terms, followed by Democrat Jim Florio. Republican Christine Todd Whitman unseated Florio after one term, then left office to serve in President George H.W. Bush’s cabinet in 2001. Democrat Jim McGreevey won the next term, which was finished by Richard Codey. Democrat Jon Corzine won the next term giving Democrats eight straight years, and Republican Chris Christie then won two terms, from 2010-2018, before Murphy was elected.
The outcome should be known sooner this year, however, thanks to ballot measures signed into law in 2022, including one that allows mail-in ballots to be counted up to five days ahead of Election Day.
The changes came after Murphy beat Ciattarelli in 2021 in a race that wasn’t called until the day after the election. The late call was due to an influx of mail-in ballots, which was chalked up to the COVID-19 pandemic. These ballots weren’t counted until after the polls had closed. Read more: NJ Gubernatorial Race Results Should Arrive Sooner This Year: Here’s Why
Polling reports:
Election Day 2025: Who Will NJ Choose For Governor? originally appeared on the Across New Jersey Patch
