538 has forecasted a lot of elections in its day, from the worlds of politics to sports to entertainment. But without a doubt, the Oscars are the most fun (probably because they’re also the lowest-stakes). On Sunday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will give out its coveted annual awards, and, much like the 2024 presidential election, it’s a very tough contest to predict. There’s genuine suspense over who will win major categories like Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Actor, meaning that even the people who have paid attention to every twist and turn of awards season don’t know what’s going to happen.
Thankfully, we’re not going into the ceremony entirely blind. Hollywood likes its award shows, and the film industry has handed out several accolades in the last several weeks — including the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards, Directors Guild of America Awards, Producers Guild Awards, Critics’ Choice Awards and British Academy Film Awards (better known as the BAFTAs). These precursor awards serve as polls, of a sort, of the small community of film-industry insiders who vote on the Oscars. This year, those polls are all over the place; for instance, four different films won a top prize at one of those ceremonies.
But those precursor awards are also imperfect indicators, and some of them have better track records than others. Based on that history, there is at least a weak front-runner for most of the major Oscar categories — although, to be clear, there’s certainly still room for an upset.
Best Picture
To show you what I mean, let’s break down the race for the biggest award of the night: the Oscar for Best Picture. It’s been a roller-coaster campaign: First, “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez” won at the Golden Globes, which divides its Best Picture equivalent into a Drama category and a Musical or Comedy category. Then, “Anora” won the top prize at the Critics’ Choice Awards, PGAs and DGA Awards. Most recently, “Conclave” snagged top honors at both the BAFTAs and SAG Awards.
It’s possible that Hollywood’s preferences have evolved over the last couple of months and “Conclave” is peaking at the right time. But fans of papal politics, beware: The BAFTAs and SAG Awards haven’t been very good at predicting Best Picture historically. The winner of best cast in a motion picture (the top SAG Award) has gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars just 11 of the last 20 years, and the BAFTA winner has done so just eight of the last 20 times.
And unfortunately for “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez,” the Golden Globes are terrible Oscar predictors; the Drama prize has picked the eventual Best Picture winner in just six of the last 20 years, and only two winners of Best Musical or Comedy have won the Oscar over that span.
Instead, the PGAs are best at predicting Best Picture, having done so in 14 of the last 20 years. This is probably because the PGAs’ voting rules are very similar to the Oscars’: Specifically, they both nominate 10 films rather than five,* and they are also the only organizations that use ranked-choice voting to crown winners. The DGA Awards and Critics’ Choice Awards also have decent track records of picking Best Picture.
This, of course, is great news for “Anora,” which won the three most accurate precursor prizes. As a result, most quantitative-minded Oscar pundits are picking it to win Best Picture. Former 538 culture writer Walt Hickey gives films points based on each precursor prize they win (more predictive precursors are worth more points), and his model says “Anora” leads “Conclave” 236 points to 118. Ben Zauzmer, who has developed a probabilistic Oscars model for The Hollywood Reporter, is giving “Anora” a 52-in-100 chance of winning Best Picture, while “Conclave” has only a 15-in-100 chance. In other words, “Anora” is much more likely than any other individual film to win Best Picture, but there’s still about a 50-50 chance of an upset.
Best Director
We can do the same sort of exercise with Best Director, another category that’s up in the air on Sunday night. Brady Corbet, the director of “The Brutalist,” won two of the big precursor awards for this category: the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Meanwhile, Sean Baker, who directed “Anora,” took home the DGA Award. (The Critics’ Choice Award, the last major precursor prize in this category, went to “Wicked” director Jon M. Chu, who isn’t nominated at the Oscars.)
You might think that two wins are more meaningful than one, but take a look at these awards’ track records. The winner of the DGA Award has gone on to win the Best Director Oscar a whopping 18 of the last 20 years. By contrast, the BAFTAs and Golden Globes have both been merely OK at predicting this award.
As a result, prognosticators consider this a tight race. In Hickey’s model, Corbet just edges out Baker, 188 points to 174. On the other hand, Zauzmer gives a slight edge to Baker, who has a 36-in-100 chance to Corbet’s 30-in-100.
Best Actress
Demi Moore, the star of “The Substance,” has been considered the front-runner for Best Actress for most of awards season, and she took home three major precursors: the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award and SAG Award.** However, Mikey Madison, who plays the title role in “Anora,” pulled off an upset at the BAFTAs.
And unlike Best Picture and Best Director, the acting categories at the Oscars often follow the BAFTAs’ cue. The BAFTAs and the Oscars have aligned on Best Actress in 15 of the last 20 years — including, memorably, last year, when the BAFTAs foreshadowed Emma Stone’s surprise Oscar win over Lily Gladstone.
The SAG Awards are still pretty good at picking the Best Actress Oscar winner, though, so Moore is still very much in this thing. In Hickey’s model, Madison barely leads Moore, 169 points to 166. Meanwhile, Zauzmer’s model still has Moore as the favorite with a 52-in-100 chance; Madison is at 22-in-100.
Best Actor
Similarly, everyone assumed the Best Actor Oscar was Adrien Brody’s to lose for his performance in “The Brutalist.” He racked up the BAFTA, the Critics’ Choice Award and the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama. Then, out of left field, the SAG Awards bestowed their Best Actor prize on Timothée Chalamet of “A Complete Unknown.”
This poses a real puzzle: Both the SAG Awards and BAFTAs are excellent at picking the Oscar winner for Best Actor, having done so in 18 and 16 of the last 20 years, respectively. In other words, somebody’s going to be wrong.
The tie is broken by the fact that the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama and the Critics’ Choice Award also have strong track records: Each has gone 15-for-20 in this category since 2005. As a result, quantitative models are still pretty confident that Brody is going to win. Hickey gives Brody a 273-186 lead in points, while Zauzmer calculates Brody has a 69-in-100 chance.
Best Supporting Actress and Actor
Two categories for which you won’t have to be on the edge of your seat on Sunday night are Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor. There’s no need to go through the predictive track record of the various precursor awards here — because Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin have swept them at every major ceremony.
As a result, they are virtual locks to prevail at the Oscars too. Hickey gives Saldaña 357 out of 545 total points for her performance in “Emilia Pérez,” and Culkin has amassed 367 of 632 total points for his turn in “A Real Pain.” And in Zauzmer’s model, Saldaña has an 89-in-100 chance to win, while Culkin has an 88-in-100 chance.
Footnotes
*The Oscars and PGAs used to have five Best Picture nominees too, but both organizations expanded to 10 in 2009. However, from 2011 to 2021, the Academy used a nomination system that could have resulted in anywhere from five to 10 nominees, depending on how many films got enough nomination votes — although in practice, it was always eight or nine.
**At the Golden Globes, she specifically won Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy. Fernanda Torres, of “I’m Still Here,” won Best Actress in a Drama.
Who will win at the 2025 Oscars? originally appeared on abcnews.go.com
