Democrat Eileen Higgins is tipped to beat Trump-backed Republican Emilio González in a runoff election for the officially nonpartisan position of Mayor for the City of Miami, according to the latest polls and predictions.
Why It Matters
The 2025 Miami mayoral runoff marks a critical moment in both local and national politics. Miami, Florida’s second-largest city and a longtime Republican stronghold, has not elected a Democratic mayor in almost 30 years. The contest between Higgins, a former county commissioner, and González, a former city manager, is being widely viewed as a bellwether for the 2026 midterms.
A victory for the Democrats could signal shifting political dynamics in Florida and across the nation, especially as Miami-Dade County flipped Republican in the 2024 presidential cycle. Both the Democratic and Republican parties are closely watching the outcome, seeing the race as a test of their messaging and appeal to key constituencies, especially Hispanic and independent voters.
What To Know
The runoff election between Higgins and González will determine who leads Miami following a highly competitive first round of voting on November 4.
Higgins won 36 percent of the vote in the initial round, with González trailing at 19 percent. Neither candidate secured enough votes to avoid a runoff in the crowded field of 13.
Recent polls overwhelmingly favor Higgins. A poll by MDW Communications, conducted for her campaign between October 14-18 with 307 likely Miami voters, found Higgins leading González by a margin of more than two-to-one—49.84 percent supporting Higgins versus 23.78 percent for González, with 26.38 percent undecided.
An APL Consulting poll of 307 voters, conducted November 21-24 on behalf of a political committee supportive of González’s campaign, indicated a tighter race, with Higgins at 34 percent and González at 31 percent, within a margin of error of +/- 5.9 points.
Prediction markets echo polling trends. As of the latest update, betting platform Polymarket gives Higgins a 94 percent chance of winning, compared to Gonzalez’s 6 percent.
These probabilities reflect over $68,000 in trading volume and indicate the market’s strong expectation of a Democratic victory.
Key issues in the campaign include the high cost of housing, immigration enforcement policies, and the pending legal battle over the proposed site of President Donald Trump’s presidential library downtown, CNN reported.
What People Are Saying
Republican Emilio González told CNN: “My opponent is keen on building, building, building. She wants to put a skyscraper in every corner … then calling it affordable housing, which is a misnomer, because very rarely is it truly affordable.”
Democrat Eileen Higgins told CNN: “This is the first year ever where residents have told me they’re afraid. I can’t go an hour when I am at community events without meeting someone whose brother, sister, aunt, uncle, was either taken to Alligator Alcatraz or who knows where? They don’t even know where they are.”
U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed González in a Truth Social post on November 16, saying: “It is my Great Honor to endorse Emilio T. González to be the next Mayor of the Beautiful City of Miami, Florida!… Emilio has dedicated his life to serving his Community… he will fight tirelessly to Grow the Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations… Keep our now very Secure Border, SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment.”
Miami Republican Executive Committeewoman Angie Wong told the Miami Herald: “This one may be a bellwether to predict what’s going to happen in the midterms.”
Outgoing City Commissioner Joe Carollo said in a statement: “It is extremely important for a mayor of the city of Miami, or any major city, frankly, to work with both parties. The next mayor of the city, if they’re serious about resolving the two major issues that we have — which is housing and transportation — has to work with whomever is in the White House.”
What Happens Next
The Miami mayoral runoff is set for December 9, with polls closing at 7 p.m.
The result will determine whether Miami elects its first Democratic mayor in nearly three decades, a shift that could reverberate in Florida and national politics heading into the 2026 midterms.
