The 2024 presidential election in the U.S. is inching closer and closer as early voters in some states are already deciding between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Margins in the polls remain slim indicating no clear winner this time around. It’s a competitive race, and the polls show it.
Here’s who’s in the lead according to the latest polls.
Who is winning the presidential election?
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ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48.5% to Trump’s 46.1%, compared to Harris 48.3% to Trump at 45.3% four weeks ago.
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270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.5% over Trump compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump four weeks ago.
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realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris’ favor with a spread of +1.7 over Trump compared to Harris favor of +1.8 over Trump four weeks ago.
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Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump over Harris by 19.8 percentage points compared to Harris over Trump by 0.6 percentage points four weeks ago.
Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024, at 9:30 a.m.
How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.
According to Pew Research, confidence in the public’s opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.
In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Trump and Harris polls: Who’s winning the presidential election?
