The 2030 census is still years away, but early population estimates indicate that Republican-leaning states are set to benefit.
Reapportionment, which occurs at the start of every decade using the data from the constitutionally mandated U.S. census, is the process that shifts electoral representation in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College. This process determines the distribution of political power in Washington, influencing federal policymaking for the next 10 years.
Politicians and parties pay close attention to this process, as it sets the stage for congressional and presidential campaigns. Rapidly growing states gain representation while states with more modest population increases lose federal influence.
Early forecasts of the 2030 reapportionment, such as The American Redistricting Projects prediction, show red states gaining representation at the expense of blue states.
Many within the media have treated this as a guaranteed disaster for Democrats. PBS called it the “Democrats future crisis,” and the Atlantic claimed that the Democrats are committing “partycide.” U.S. News wrote that “Democrats long-term chances of winning the White House stand to be seriously imperiled”. In reality, its not nearly as decisive as sensationalists would have you believe.
To be clear: The prediction suggests a likely setback for Democrats. The model, which is based on 2024 estimates, predicts four additional seats in the House for both Texas and Florida, two reliably Republican states. By contrast, California and New York, two of the bluest states in the country, are predicted to lose three and two representatives, respectively. The deeply Republican states of Idaho and Utah are both expected to gain a representative, while the staunchly blue states of Illinois and Oregon are predicted to lose one each. No solidly Republican states are expected to lose representation. There is little doubt that this will harm Democrats in the House.
That being said, there are several mitigating factors. Since the reapportionment will not take place until 2030, there is plenty of time for things to change. The 2020 reapportionment cycle caused less movement in fewer states than predicted, and this could easily happen again.
Even if the prediction is accurate, the margins are unlikely to impact the presidential elections that will fall under this census (2032, 2036, and 2040). If the 2024 election results are projected onto the 2030 reapportionment model, Donald Trumps electoral vote count rises from 312 to 321, and Kamala Harris falls from 226 to 217. Theres no questioning that this benefits Republicans. In 2024, if these forecasted adjustments were in place, Trump could have won the election without Nevada or any of the so-called ‘blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan.
Still, while this shifts the map in the Republicans favor, history suggests that such small changes are rarely decisive. Barring abnormal elections decided by the House of Representatives, only two Presidential elections have been decided by 18 or fewer electoral votes (1876, 2000). While it is certainly possible that the elections of 2032, 2036, or 2040 could be this close, it is statistically unlikely.
Recent history in the House of Representatives has shown narrower margins than those in presidential elections. That said, Republican gains could be tempered here as well. New seats dont automatically swing Republican just because theyre in red states. Similarly, blue states could lose a Republican-leaning district and have it absorbed by solidly Democratic districts.
For example, in 2020, Oregon gained a seat in the House of Representatives. Despite the state being solidly Democratic, the change created an environment where Oregons 5th Congressional District became competitive enough for the Republicans to capture the seat after a contentious Democratic primary that saw a moderate Democrat ousted by a more progressive primary challenger. As a result, Oregons House of Representatives delegation went from four Democrats and one Republican (2020) to four Democrats and two Republicans (2022). The same seat went back to Democrats in the 2024 election, but only by around 3%. A large enough red wave could swing it back in the other direction.
If the 2030 reapportionment plays out in the way that the American Redistricting Project predicts, Arizona is another state where Democrats could gain a seat depending on redistricting and election results.
Similarly, red districts could be theoretically drawn out of New York, California, Minnesota, and Illinois as the states lose representation. New York Democrats, in particular, are known for attempting aggressive gerrymandering based on the previous cycle.
Ultimately, the party that benefits from reapportionment is often the party that draws the new maps. Republicans hold redistricting control in states like Texas and Florida, while Democrats dominate in New York and Illinois. Other states, such as Arizona and Washington, have independent commissions or split control, adding unpredictability. These redistricting practices, which are controlled at the state level, play a large role in shaping representation, independent of the federal reapportionment process.
The judicial landscape also plays a role, as several congressional maps from the 2020 cycle were struck down in court. Most notably, Alabama, North Carolina, and New York have seen courts invalidate maps due to racial or partisan gerrymandering concerns.
Lastly, its worth noting that voters who are moving from California to Texas are disproportionately Republican. As a result, California gets bluer at the same rate that Texas gets redder, causing House of Representatives districts within California, including competitive seats, to lean more Democratic.
The 2030 reapportionment wont necessarily lead to the eight-year streak of controlling the House that the GOP enjoyed from the 2010 reapportionment. Even then, in an environment where Democrats controlled the redistricting of just 44 districts compared to the Republicans 173, the GOP still lost control of the House in the 2018 midterms.
Reapportionment may set the table, but it doesnt serve the meal. Its the candidates, courts, campaigns, and crises that will shape American politics in the 2030s, not the raw seat counts of states.
James Eustis is an intern at RealClearPolitics. He studies politics at Washington & Lee University.