The gubernatorial race between Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears has been contentious. Here’s everything you need to know.
NORFOLK, Va. — With just under a week before Election Day, Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears has few days left to close the polling gap between her and former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger in the 2025 gubernatorial election.
Recent data from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University revealed Earle-Sears gained 3% in Spanberger’s lead after trailing by 10% in the same poll just weeks before.
Earle-Sears, the first woman of color ever elected to a statewide office in Virginia in 2021, is spending some of the last campaign days in Richmond to preside over the State Senate as Virginia lawmakers debate a newly introduced redistricting Constitutional Amendment.
Some political forecasters believe a double-digit win is still on the table for Spanberger.
“Spanberger is doing a much better job on persuasion with winning independents and even Trump voters. What was interesting in the poll, Spanberger has large gains with Trump voters of low income. Think, why did Trump win last year? ‘It’s the economy, stupid,’ as James Carville would say,” said Chaz Nuttycombe, the founder of the political forecasting site State Navigate. “Spanberger made the cost of living the focus of her campaign, Sears has made the focus of her campaign on transgender issues.”
His polling organization conducted a recent statewide poll in which Spanberger led by roughly 13% among about 700 likely Virginia voters.
“Grocery prices haven’t gone down, and that’s one of the things the president campaigned on last year. I think that’s why Spanberger is gaining with lower-income Trump voters, a 10-point swing compared to presidential polling,” he said.
Background on the candidates
U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D)
Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger announced in November 2023 that she would run for Virginia governor in the 2025 election, foregoing reelection for a fourth term in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Formerly a CIA officer, Spanberger was elected to the House in 2018, where she built a reputation for bipartisanship and moderate stances on several issues. She represented Virginia’s competitive 7th Congressional District, comprised of Prince William County, Stafford County and Spotsylvania County, among other localities.
Spanberger garnered a list of high-profile endorsements in her gubernatorial campaign, including former Gov. Ralph Northam, U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton, and several members of the Virginia General Assembly, according to her campaign website.
Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)
At a rally in Virginia Beach in September 2024, Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears announced she would run for governor.
According to her official website, Earle-Sears was the first Republican in Virginia since 1865 to be elected to a majority Black House of Delegates district in 2002.
She is also the first female lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia, the first Black female elected statewide, the first naturalized female elected to statewide office, and the first female Veteran to be elected to statewide office.
Currently, all three of Virginia’s statewide state government offices — governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general — are held by Republicans and will be on the ballot next year. Gov. Glenn Youngkin, like all Virginia governors, is prohibited from seeking a second consecutive term.
Earle-Sears was the first Republican to announce a candidacy for Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial race. As of June 18, she raised $9.1 million.
Takeaways from the one and only debate
In their first and only debate appearance before Election Day at Norfolk State University on October 10, Spanberger and Earle-Sears addressed their distinct approaches to issues facing Virginians.
Throughout the hour-long debate, moderators repeatedly asked Earle-Sears to refrain from interrupting and from talking over Spanberger’s answers to the debate questions.
“It was unhinged, unprofessional, and uncalled for. Not the Virginia way. Not what we expect from our leaders,” House Speaker of Virginia Don Scott said in the media room following the debate.
“Part of what she was trying to do was capture that energy the Republican party has around President Trump. Sort of, ‘motivating my base’, throwing [debate] punches,” Virginia Wesleyan University professor and political analyst Leslie Caughell told 13News Now.
Throughout the crosstalk, Spanberger continued looking straight ahead at the debate moderators without acknowledging Earle-Sears’ comments, often speaking through them and attempting to answer the questions anyway.
“Spanberger wasn’t going to get in the mud on this stuff because there wasn’t much for her to gain. Except Spanberger has a reputation for being cautious, careful and moderate. Had she risen to the debate, that would have undercut the campaign message,” Caughell said.
The two navigated and traded attacks on a variety of local, state and federal issues, including data center implementation, the exodus of Virginia’s college demographics and workforce, immigration policy, school curricula, and the legalization of a retail marijuana market.
In the debate, the candidates touched on the federal government shutdown and their responsibilities as Virginia’s governor.
Moderators asked each candidate if they would use their influence as governor to convince Virginia’s congressional representatives to end the shutdown.
Earle-Sears answered first, suggesting that Spanberger should have called Virginia Senators Tim Kaine and Mark Warner and convinced them to vote against a shutdown.
“My opponent, all summer long, has been playing political football with federal workers by trying to say that she loves them more than anyone else,” Earle-Sears said. “When are you going to publicly say, two Senators, Kaine and Warner, go and do your job and keep federal workers working?”
Earle-Sears brought up how members of the military are currently going without pay, and as a Marine veteran, that was especially concerning to her.
“You can do something about that, you’re the one who’s been talking about all that love. Well, show love. Keep them in their jobs,” she said.
Spanberger, a former Congresswoman, said she entered Congress during the longest shutdown in history, which occurred between December 2018 and January 2019.
“The current lieutenant governor of Virginia has not stood up for Virginia workers,” Spanberger said. “Because right now, when Virginia’s federal workforce and contractors and communities across the Commonwealth are suffering because of this current shutdown, it’s only increasing the challenge that they’re facing after months and months of attacks from this White House under DOGE. That entire time, my opponent has been making light of federal workers losing their jobs, saying ‘it’s not a big deal.’”
