She’s 41, has a torn ACL and yet oddsmakers still aren’t dismissing Lindsey Vonn — at least not as critically as some may have thought.
Vonn’s miraculous plight to the No. 1 FIS World Cup downhill ranking since coming out of retirement just over a year ago had granted her early favorite status for the medal event in Cortina d’Ampezzo on Sunday at 5:30 a.m. ET.
But when a crash at a World Cup race left her with a knee injury and required an airlift just nine days before the event, the market didn’t flinch.
For one thing, Italy’s Sofia Goggia, the No. 6 world-ranked skier in downhill, leapfrogged Vonn as the +125 favorite at DraftKings immediately.
Goggia, who won gold in 2018 and silver in 2022, had climbed to queen status of the downhill discipline in Vonn’s stead.
The 33-year-old representing the hosting nation has spent the winter trying to escape Vonn’s shadow, and given her Olympic resume, she’s really the only safe swap to usurp her odds.
Vonn’s price has fluctuated since announcing she would compete on a ruptured ACL, but she remains comfortably priced above Germany’s Kira Weidle-Winkelmann and Emma Aicher as the second-favorite.
As of this writing, DraftKings lists Vonn at a handsome +600 odds.
Her injury makes handicapping this event a bit of a conundrum: Do you fade the empirically best racer because of a knee brace? Or instead read the tea leaves that the market is indicating in its apprehension to sink her?
I like to chase value in sports betting, and this uncertainty has opened the path to a premium of a discount you’re ever going to see.
Just two months ago, Vonn became the oldest downhill skiing World Cup winner in St. Moritz, her first victory since 2018 and her 83rd overall. And she didn’t just win by the skin of her teeth; she set herself from the field by two-hundredths from a full second.
Vonn added her 84th win in Zauchensee, Austria a month later in snowy conditions. And let’s remember, she’s been doing this on a reconstructed titanium leg all along.
According to orthopedic experts, the risks of Vonn skiing on a torn ACL are her knee stability, limited range of motion and the extreme rotational forces of moving at 80-plus mph.
Beyond this is the mental fortitude to race with confidence, which considering her long history of persevering through knee injuries, is unlikely to hinder her.
Vonn’s first go at skiing with the brace on at Olympia delle Tofane on Friday was dazzling. She finished in 11th place, less than a half-second back from third. That doesn’t paint the full picture, however: Vonn’s time of 1:20.78 seconds entering the final section ranked third among the 44 participants.
She was in the top 10 through the second and third sections, too.
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Vonn owns a record 12 World Cup wins in Cortina and her comeback has provided her a final shot for historic Olympic glory on a slope she favors.
She’s already defying the odds by competing, so let’s play them for a big return and back her to win.
THE PLAY: Lindsey Vonn to Win Gold Medal (+600, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
