World Cup 2026 Group D preview: Prediction, odds, full team overviews

The United States wanted an easy group at the World Cup, and it certainly got one that qualifies as manageable. All eyes will be on the Americans in Group D as they open their first World Cup on home soil in 32 years against Paraguay on June 12.

The Post looks at the USMNT and its Group D opposition.

Teams listed in predicted order of finish.

United States

Odds to win group: +140

What you need to know: Talent-wise, the US has never brought a better roster to a World Cup. There’s a long list of players who have performed at a high level in Europe: Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Malik Tillman, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards, Sergiño Dest, Antonee Robinson and even bench players such as Gio Reyna and Brenden Aaronson. What the US doesn’t have much of is proof that it can be more than the sum of its parts. They’re still searching for their first World Cup knockout-stage win since 2002, and for good performances — let alone wins — against truly high-end competition. If they can put it together, it will galvanize the country.

How they play: The big tactical question in front of manager Mauricio Pochettino is whether to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation that seems to be his preference or go back to a 3-4-3 under which the Americans dominated Paraguay and Uruguay in the fall. The lack of clarity there highlights a group that still hasn’t quite seized its identity under Pochettino, whose biggest task as manager has been instilling a culture that seemed to stagnate under his predecessor, Gregg Berhalter.

Star player: Pulisic is the player you’ll see in every ad campaign this month, and there’s not much argument that he’s the most talented player ever to wear the shirt. The 26-year-old Pennsylvania native has been playing for prestigious clubs in Europe since he was 16: Borussia Dortmund, Chelsea and now AC Milan, and he’s performed at a high level for all of them. There were some worries about his form coming into the tournament. Prior to scoring in a tuneup match against Senegal, Pulisic hadn’t scored for the national team since September 2024, and his last goal for Milan came all the way back on Dec. 8.

World Cup history: Let’s call it what it is: pretty mediocre. Outside of a shock qualifying exit in 2018, the US has been in the World Cup every four years since 1990, but the Yanks have won just one knockout game in that span, beating Mexico in 2002 for their only quarterfinal appearance since making the semis in the inaugural 1930 competition. The Americans have lost in the Round of 16 the last three times they’ve made the World Cup: to the Netherlands in 2022, to Belgium in 2014 and to Ghana in 2010. Another defeat there — or before then — would feel like wasted potential.

Türkiye

Odds: +175

What you need to know: Between Hakan Çalhanoglu, Arda Güler and striker Kenan Yildiz, there’s plenty of star power in this team. There’s quality throughout, too, with midfielders Orkun Kökçü and Salih Özcan, striker Kerem Aktürkoglu and fullback Ferdi Kadioglu. Though they had to struggle through Romania and minnows Kosovo to get to the World Cup, the Turks lost just one game in their qualifying group, and that was to Spain.

How they play: The midfield functions around Çalhanoglu, who can control games on the ball and play as a distributor. Manager Vincenzo Montella tends to set his team up in a 4-2-3-1 and despite a high level of offensive talent, Türkiye is plenty capable of digging in defensively.

Star player: Çalhanoglu is Türkiye’s glue, but Güler, the 21-year-old Real Madrid starlet, is its superstar. A terrific and creative passer who can score, too, Güler has already shown he can perform under the bright lights for the biggest club in the world. He’s going to be a handful for any team that faces Türkiye at this World Cup.

World Cup history: This is just the third time Türkiye has qualified for the World Cup. The first was in 1954, when they lost in the group stage. The second was in 2002, when they beat Japan and Senegal in the knockouts to secure a shock run to the semifinal. Türkiye lost to Brazil there, but beat South Korea for bronze. Since then, a third-place finish at the 2008 European Championship marks Türkiye’s best achievement, and failures to qualify for the World Cup hung over the federation until the playoff win over Kosovo saw it through.

Paraguay

Odds: +400

What you need to know: Manager Gustavo Alfaro got Paraguay to its first World Cup since 2010 and became a national figure in the process. He went viral in Paraguay after telling the story of a greengrocer breaking down in tears upon meeting him in an Asunción supermarket and inviting the man to watch Paraguay’s win over Chile. Wins over Argentina and Brazil didn’t hurt his reputation either.

How they play: There’s lots of talent in the midfield and backline. Midfielder Miguel Almirón isn’t at his peak anymore, but can still contribute at a high level. Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Diego Gómez is just 22 years old and teeming with potential. On defense, Gustavo Gómez and Omar Alderete form a strong center back tandem. Alfaro has built a disciplined defensive team that sets up in a 4-4-2 and is tough to break down. Don’t be fooled by the way the USMNT dominated Paraguay in a friendly last November. Neither starting 11 was representative that night, and La Albirroja will be a tough team to start against for the US.

Star player: Almirón was dealing with a knee injury going into camp, which gives us an excuse to talk up Julio Enciso. A 22-year-old midfielder for Strasbourg in France, Enciso is the sort of highly skilled player who can make something happen anytime he touches the ball. On a defense-first team, he’s one of the most creative pieces and the most likely to come up with a highlight-reel moment that can change a game.

World Cup history: The 2010 World Cup that marks Paraguay’s last appearance at the tournament was also its best-ever result. La Albirroja won their group in South Africa, beat Japan on penalties and it took an 83rd-minute winner from Spain to knock them out in the quarterfinals. Otherwise, though, there’s not much to speak about. Paraguay competed at the inaugural World Cup but didn’t make the knockouts until 1986, and that win over Japan is its only ever victory after the group stage.

Australia

Odds: +800

What you need to know: Midfielder Jackson Irvine is the team’s heartbeat, both on and off the field. He was outspoken in support of LGBT rights at the last World Cup in Qatar, and even after he underwent foot surgery this year, much of Australia’s game will go through him. Manager Tony Popovic was hired to rescue Australia in qualifying and got the job done, taking the country to a sixth straight World Cup.

How they play: Popovic has set up in either a 5-4-1 or 3-4-2-1, turning Australia into a defense-first outfit that tries to take advantage on the counterattack. While the Socceroos were a fun team to watch in 2022, they’re more pragmatic and less swashbuckling now, playing in a low block. It has all the makings of a team designed to beat more talented squads.

Star player: Irvine is the conventional pick here, but given his lack of form and injury-plagued season, we’ll go with defender Jordan Bos. The 22-year-old left back has been a fixture in the lineup for Dutch side Feyenoord, and has impressive attacking numbers in his first season in the Eredivisie. He profiles as an adventurous player who can get up the pitch and create chances, and could be a breakout candidate at this World Cup.

World Cup history: Australia has been a fixture at the World Cup for the past 20 years but has never made it far. A Round of 16 appearance in which the Socceroos lost to eventual champion Argentina in 2022 matched their best result, having also made it that far in 2006, when eventual champion Italy overcame a red card to beat them via a 95th-minute penalty. Prior to 2006, Australia’s lone appearance was in 1974.