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Xabi Alonso’s connection to Real Madrid is well-documented. He’s not only a Champions League-winning midfielder with the club but a former U14 coach who understands Los Blancos’ mentality inside out. However, sentimentality can only do so much — persistence under pressure wins trophies, and the 43-year-old has already proven he can do so at the highest level.
Last season, the Spaniard turned Bayer Leverkusen into a powerhouse. The result? An invincible Bundesliga title win, a long-awaited German Cup in the bag, and a team that finally played with identity and ruthless precision. Our fearless three-person crew dives into the fray with thoughts on what Alonso means for Madrid’s prospects and the potential betting ramifications to follow.
Can Alonso boost Los Blancos’ odds of winning silverware next season?
Julia Ranney: Alonso leaping from the stands to join Madrid’s celebrations during the 2016 Champions League final was a prophecy. His unapologetic joy was the mark of someone who bleeds for the club, and it’s a passion that will deliver another trophy to the Bernabéu.
Following Carlo Ancelotti is no small task, especially stepping into a club that demands silverware. This season, Madrid, while still elite, have at times shown fragility over firepower — especially after bowing out in Europe 5-1 on aggregate to Arsenal in the quarter-final. Will the pressure of a lacklustre UCL campaign (by Madrid’s standards) get to Alonso? His presence and pedigree say otherwise.
Betfair are currently pricing Madrid to win the league at 100/1 — a long shot that reflects their recent inconsistency. But with Alonso at the helm, those odds will significantly shorten next season. So, don’t bet against the romantic return of a Madridista.
Brett Koremenos: The numbers paint a pretty damning picture for La Liga’s title race: Barcelona’s expected goal differential per 90 minutes (xGD) is 1.38 this season. Madrid are currently at 0.78 xGD per 90. The difference between those two clubs is slightly smaller than the gap between Madrid and the side with the eighth-best xGD per 90: Real Sociedad. Los Blancos were quite lucky the title race lasted as long as it did. I don’t think Alonso alone closes that gap.
Thankfully for Madrid, knockout competitions exist. Los Blancos will still be among the favourites to win next season’s Copa del Rey and Champions League. I wouldn’t be overly shocked if Alonso captured one of those honours, but at least from the bookmakers’ perspective, La Liga is Barça’s to lose.
Sam Tighe: I can see both sides of the argument but I think I’m siding more with Brett. The big problem here is the Barça machine. Notwithstanding their fall at the Champions League semi-final stage, they’ve put together a monstrous season and the architect of it, manager Hansi Flick, is reportedly set to sign a new deal and continue his work.
This is what Alonso is up against — a man who has already won one European treble (with Bayern Munich in 2020) and came pretty close to doing it again on his next attempt. That Barça squad has pre-eminent young stars who are not only talented, but willing to work hard for the cause to ensure team success. Alonso is good — but is he that good?
Can Alonso make betting on Madrid’s attackers more worthwhile — chiefly Mbappé?
Brett: Mbappé is 66/1 to win the Ballon d’Or despite leading La Liga in goals (27) and shots per 90 (4.40). He’s posted those marks despite gaping flaws in the squad construction. It’s why this Madrid side failed to win a single trophy this season. The combination of Alonso and Trent Alexander-Arnold should remedy that.
At Leverkusen, Alonso used Granit Xhaka’s passing to great effect to secure a Bundesliga title. Alexander-Arnold is Xhaka on steroids. The Liverpool defender ranked among the Premier League’s top passers in nearly every category, as he was fifth in expected assists, sixth in progressive passes and seventh in passes into the penalty area.
If Alonso utilizes the 26-year-old correctly, Mbappé’s goal-scoring numbers will take a considerable leap, while Madrid, as a team, should be in contention for silverware in all competitions. As long as France don’t tank the World Cup, it’s hard to imagine that, at least in the coming season, Mbappé won’t be among the favourites to win the award.
Julia: Alonso can elevate the already magical Mbappé. Under Ancelotti, Madrid’s attack often stemmed from positional freedom and improvisation — a system that allowed individual stars to shine but sometimes lacked structure. By contrast, Alonso promotes a more disciplined approach through carefully rehearsed attacking patterns. That framework could be exactly what Mbappé needs to sharpen his decision-making and maximize his presence in the final third. The ramifications could lead to more attractive odds in the anytime/first scorer markets.
Sam: Well, the good news is that Alonso has had plenty of success at Leverkusen playing without a recognised No. 9. Critics would still argue that the die Werkself looked at their best with a recognised forward — Patrik Schick or Victor Boniface — but the fact there’s some evidence he can tailor a system around not using one is a positive.
Unless Madrid go and sign Joselu back from the Qatari league, that’s the task facing the Spanish coach: Make an XI that includes three elite forwards but no natural striker actually function properly. That will only be truly tested when Los Blancos play fellow top sides.
What factors could dampen the betting predictions around Alonso’s first season in Spain?
Brett: Sadly, most of the factors that will impact Alonso are out of his control. Is there a manager alive who can make Vinícius Júnior and Mbappé complement each other? Or one that can make Madrid’s defenders stop tearing their ACLs?
The main problem for the new Madrid manager is that Barça are just better in every way right now. Michael Imburgio’s DAVIES model, which measures on-ball value, ranks Mbappé first across the big five leagues in Europe. That’s great for Alonso. The fourth, fifth and sixth spots, however, are occupied by Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha. Yamal’s ascent toward superstardom, Lewandowski’s battle against father time, Raphinha’s rapid rise and Pedri’s recovery from recurrent hamstring problems will have more to do with Madrid’s success than anything Alonso does.
I don’t think we will reach the point we’re at now where Madrid are 100/1 to win La Liga with multiple games left in the season. But if the markets have Los Blancos coming into the 2025-26 season as favourites solely due to the addition of their manager, I will definitely raise a Ancelotti-esque eyebrow.
Julia: Personally, it’s less about Alonso’s work at Leverkusen and more about his relative lack of experience managing at the elite level. While the 43-year-old’s time in Germany has been remarkable, stepping into the Madrid hot seat is a different challenge. There’s also a risk that Alonso, managing a club he loves, could overthink tactical decisions, especially in high-stakes moments where simplicity and player management might matter more than schematic control.
From a betting perspective, this unpredictability — especially around squad rotation and tactical choices — may make Madrid a tougher team to back with confidence. Early in Alonso’s reign, bettors might be more inclined to play it safe, avoiding high-risk punts until his managerial tendencies and matchday patterns become more predictable.
Sam: The obvious concern for me would be that Alonso is forced to compromise on his gegenpressing tactical style due to the profile of his forwards (for the most part, they just don’t engage in defending from the front), fails to find a Plan B quickly enough, then succumbs to the pressure that swirls menacingly around the Bernabéu at all times.
He either gets Mbappé or Vini Jr actively defending, finds a miraculous way to mitigate neither doing so, or gets sacked. Either way, the bookmakers will certainly deliver on the betting front.
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(Photo of Xabi Alonso: Lars Baron / Getty Images)
