Jarren Duran’s emergence to stardom is much to thank for the Red Sox’s overachieving at the midway point of an MLB season in which they were expected to be nonfactors.
An incendiary June performance when Duran posted a .420 slug percentage led him to becoming the first player in American League history to record 100 hits, 10 triples, 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases before the All-Star break.
This milestone has translated to Duran standing as the No. 5 overall player in wins above replacement heading into Yankee Stadium against Nestor Cortes on Friday.
Things have been trending in the opposite direction for Cortes, who’s been struggling with yielding early hits and lost his past two starts.
The southpaw who loves his fastball has sunk into the bottom nine percent in hard-hit rate, according to Statcast.
Duran has reached extra bases on fastballs more than any other pitch type; he’s slamming them for a .283 average.
Mind you, Cortes has been exceptionally better at home than on the road, though given Duran’s output, it’s safer than not to ignore those splits.
Cortes surrendered a hit to Duran the only time they faced each other in the big leagues, but what’s more is that Duran was hitting .315 against left-handed pitching on the road entering play Thursday.
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Before Thursday’s games, Duran had gone hitless in one of his previous 20, so at plus-money Duran’s total bases prop drives exciting value in a prove-it rivalry game.
The play: Jarren Duran Over 1.5 Bases (+110, FanDuel)
